Report A: ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
TABLE A2
BRITISH COLUMBIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
| Budget Forecast |
Actual/ Estimate |
Forecast | ||||
| 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | ||||
| Gross Domestic Product (percentage change in current dollars) | 3.6 | 3.0 1 | 1.1 | 3.9 | ||
| Real Gross Domestic Product (percentage change in 1986 dollars) | 2.2 | 2.0 1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | ||
| Consumer Expenditure | 2.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | ||
| Government Expenditure | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | ||
| Capital Investment | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 | ||
| Exports of Goods and Services | 2.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | ||
| Imports of Goods and Services | 2.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | ||
| Inventory Investment (change in billions of 1986 dollars) | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Population (percentage change) | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | ||
| Net In-migration | 57,400 | 49,700 1 | 40,700 | 48,500 | ||
| Interprovincial | 19,000 | 7,400 1 | 3,000 | 12,200 | ||
| International | 38,400 | 42,300 1 | 37,700 | 36,300 | ||
| Labour Force (thousands) | 2,019 | 2,012 | 2,044 | 2,079 | ||
| (percentage change) | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | ||
| Employment (thousands) | 1,846 | 1,838 | 1,847 | 1,877 | ||
| (percentage change) | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.6 | ||
| Unemployment Rate (per cent) | 8.6 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 9.7 | ||
| Retail Sales (millions of current dollars) | 32,230 | 32,771 | 33,430 | 34,230 | ||
| (percentage change) | 3.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | ||
| Labour Income 2 (millions of current dollars) | 60,750 | 60,731 | 61,640 | 63,240 | ||
| (percentage change) | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | ||
| Corporate Pre-tax Profits | ||||||
| (millions of current dollars) | 5,050 3 | 4,675 1 | 3,740 | 4,935 | ||
| (percentage change) | 15.0 | -13.2 | -20.0 | 32.0 | ||
| Housing Starts (units) | 30,200 | 29,351 | 27,900 | 28,300 | ||
| (percentage change) | 9.3 | 6.2 | -4.9 | 1.4 | ||
| Consumer Price Index (1992=100) | 110.6 4 | 109.7 | 110.5 | 111.7 | ||
| (percentage change) | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | ||
| Key Assumptions: | ||||||
| Economic Growth (per cent) | ||||||
| Canada | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | ||
| United States | 2.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | ||
| Japan | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.5 | ||
| Europe | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | ||
| Canadian Interest Rates (per cent; annual average) | ||||||
| 3-month Treasury Bills | 3.4 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | ||
| 10-year and over Government of Canada bonds |
6.5 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | ||
| U.S. cents/Canadian dollar | 74.3 | 72.1 | 70.2 | 71.0 | ||
| Export/Commodity Prices | ||||||
British Columbia goods and service export prices (percentage change) |
1.0 | 0.0 | -1.3 | 3.0 | ||
Spruce-Pine-Fir Lumber (U.S. $/1,000 board feet) |
350 | 353 | 300 | 335 | ||
Pulp (U.S. $/tonne) |
600 | 567 | 560 | 625 | ||
Newsprint (U.S. $/tonne) |
620 | 559 | 615 | 630 | ||
Copper (U.S. $/lb.) |
0.90 | 1.03 | 0.84 | 0.90 | ||
Lead (U.S. $/lb.) |
0.36 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.30 | ||
Zinc (U.S. $/lb.) |
0.52 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.50 | ||
Gold (U.S. $/oz.) |
390 | 331 | 298 | 300 | ||
Aluminum (U.S. $/lb.) |
0.75 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.72 | ||
Natural Gas (U.S. $/gigajoule) |
1.13 | 1.40 | 1.10 | 1.16 | ||
Coal (Cdn. $/tonne) 5 |
52 | 55 | 54 | 53 | ||
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Return to Report A: Economic Review and Outlook |