Report A: ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

TABLE A2
BRITISH COLUMBIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK


Budget
Forecast

Actual/
Estimate

Forecast



1998

1999 2000

Gross Domestic Product (current dollars; percentage change) 1.1 -1.01 1.1 3.0
Real Gross Domestic Product (1992 dollars; percentage change) 0.9 -0.51 0.5 2.0
Consumer Expenditure 1.5 0.6 1.8 1.3
Capital Investment 1.4 -2.5 -0.9 5.0
Government Expenditure 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5
Exports of Goods and Services 1.0 -0.5 1.8 3.1
Imports of Goods and Services 1.6 -0.2 1.9 2.3
Inventory Investment (change in billions of  1992 dollars) 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.0
Real Gross Domestic Product (Minister's forecast panel) 1.4 -0.5 0.0 1.3
Population (percentage change) 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.3
Net In-migration 40,700 8,9001 25,900 44,500
Interprovincial 3,000 -19,5001 -7,400 11,700
International 37,700 28,4001 33,300 32,800
Labour Force (thousands) 2,044 2,043 2,089 2,110
(percentage change) 1.6 1.5 2.3 1.0
Employment (thousands) 1,847 1,860 1,918 1,933
(percentage change) 0.5 1.2 3.1 0.8
Unemployment Rate (per cent) 9.6 8.9 8.2 8.4
Retail Sales (millions of current dollars) 34,4113 33,245 34,080 34,760
(percentage change) 2.0 -1.5 2.5 2.0
Labour Income2 (millions of current dollars) 61,4233 61,628 63,480 64,940
(percentage change) 1.5 1.7 3.0 2.3
Corporate Pre-tax Profits
(millions of current dollars) 4,9853 5,3001 5,035 6,040
(percentage change) -20.0 -15.0 -5.0 20.0
Housing Starts (units) 27,900 19,931 18,000 20,700
(percentage change) -4.9 -32.1 -9.7 15.0
Consumer Price Index (1992=100) 110.5 110.0 110.6 111.9
(percentage change) 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.2
Key Assumptions:
Economic Growth (per cent)
Canada 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.5
United States 2.0 3.9 3.0 2.3
Japan 0.3 -2.8 -1.3 1.0
Europe 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.4
Housing Starts (annual percentage change)
Canada 8.8 -6.5 1.9 7.1
United States -1.8 9.6 -4.7 -5.2
Japan -5.8 -13.6 0.2 2.5
Industrial Production
(annual percentage change)
United States 1.0 3.7 2.0 3.0
Japan 0.0 -6.9 -3.0 2.0
Consumer Prices
(annual percentage change)
Canada 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5
United States 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.4
Canadian Interest Rates
(per cent; annual average)
3-month Treasury Bills 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6
10-year and over
Government of Canada bonds
6.0 5.5 5.4 5.5
United States Interest Rates
(per cent; annual average)
3-month Treasury Bills 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.2
10-year and over U.S. Treasury bonds 6.0 5.7 5.2 5.2
U.S. cents/Canadian dollar 70.2 67.5 66.6 69.4
Commodity Prices
British Columbia Export Prices
(Cdn $; percentage change)
-1.3 -1.0 0.8 1.1
Spruce-Pine-Fir Lumber
(U.S. $/1,000 board feet)
300 286 295 290
Pulp (U.S. $/tonne) 560 516 484 540
Newsprint (U.S. $/tonne) 615 595 536 540
Copper (U.S. $/lb.) 0.84 0.75 0.63 0.65
Lead (U.S. $/lb.) 0.29 0.24 0.25 0.27
Zinc (U.S. $/lb.) 0.5 0.47 0.49 0.55
Gold (U.S. $/oz.) 298 295 310 330
Aluminum (U.S. $/lb.) 0.72 0.62 0.56 0.59
Natural Gas (U.S. $/gigajoule) 1.10 1.00 1.09 1.10
Coal (Cdn. $/tonne)4 54 42 43 39
 
1 Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations estimates. The 1998 and 1999 revenue forecasts were based on lower economic assumptions (see Report B for details).
2 Wages, salaries and supplementary labour income.
3 Levels are not comparable to the 1998 budget document due to Statistics Canada data revisions.
4 Weighted average of metallurgical and thermal coal prices.

 

back to Report A: ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

Copyright 1999: Queen’s Printer, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada