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back to Report A: ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK |
Report A: ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
TABLE A2
BRITISH COLUMBIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Budget |
Actual/ |
Forecast |
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1998 |
1999 | 2000 | ||||
| Gross Domestic Product (current dollars; percentage change) | 1.1 | -1.01 | 1.1 | 3.0 | ||
| Real Gross Domestic Product (1992 dollars; percentage change) | 0.9 | -0.51 | 0.5 | 2.0 | ||
| Consumer Expenditure | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | ||
| Capital Investment | 1.4 | -2.5 | -0.9 | 5.0 | ||
| Government Expenditure | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | ||
| Exports of Goods and Services | 1.0 | -0.5 | 1.8 | 3.1 | ||
| Imports of Goods and Services | 1.6 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | ||
| Inventory Investment (change in billions of 1992 dollars) | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 0.0 | ||
| Real Gross Domestic Product (Minister's forecast panel) | 1.4 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | ||
| Population (percentage change) | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | ||
| Net In-migration | 40,700 | 8,9001 | 25,900 | 44,500 | ||
| Interprovincial | 3,000 | -19,5001 | -7,400 | 11,700 | ||
| International | 37,700 | 28,4001 | 33,300 | 32,800 | ||
| Labour Force (thousands) | 2,044 | 2,043 | 2,089 | 2,110 | ||
| (percentage change) | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | ||
| Employment (thousands) | 1,847 | 1,860 | 1,918 | 1,933 | ||
| (percentage change) | 0.5 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | ||
| Unemployment Rate (per cent) | 9.6 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 8.4 | ||
| Retail Sales (millions of current dollars) | 34,4113 | 33,245 | 34,080 | 34,760 | ||
| (percentage change) | 2.0 | -1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | ||
| Labour Income2 (millions of current dollars) | 61,4233 | 61,628 | 63,480 | 64,940 | ||
| (percentage change) | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | ||
| Corporate Pre-tax Profits | ||||||
| (millions of current dollars) | 4,9853 | 5,3001 | 5,035 | 6,040 | ||
| (percentage change) | -20.0 | -15.0 | -5.0 | 20.0 | ||
| Housing Starts (units) | 27,900 | 19,931 | 18,000 | 20,700 | ||
| (percentage change) | -4.9 | -32.1 | -9.7 | 15.0 | ||
| Consumer Price Index (1992=100) | 110.5 | 110.0 | 110.6 | 111.9 | ||
| (percentage change) | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | ||
| Key Assumptions: | ||||||
| Economic Growth (per cent) | ||||||
| Canada | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | ||
| United States | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | ||
| Japan | 0.3 | -2.8 | -1.3 | 1.0 | ||
| Europe | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | ||
| Housing Starts (annual percentage change) | ||||||
| Canada | 8.8 | -6.5 | 1.9 | 7.1 | ||
| United States | -1.8 | 9.6 | -4.7 | -5.2 | ||
| Japan | -5.8 | -13.6 | 0.2 | 2.5 | ||
| Industrial Production (annual percentage change) |
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| United States | 1.0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Japan | 0.0 | -6.9 | -3.0 | 2.0 | ||
| Consumer Prices (annual percentage change) |
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| Canada | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | ||
| United States | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | ||
| Canadian Interest Rates (per cent; annual average) |
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| 3-month Treasury Bills | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | ||
| 10-year and over Government of Canada bonds |
6.0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | ||
| United States Interest Rates (per cent; annual average) |
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| 3-month Treasury Bills | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | ||
| 10-year and over U.S. Treasury bonds | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.2 | ||
| U.S. cents/Canadian dollar | 70.2 | 67.5 | 66.6 | 69.4 | ||
| Commodity Prices | ||||||
| British Columbia Export Prices (Cdn $; percentage change) |
-1.3 | -1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | ||
| Spruce-Pine-Fir Lumber (U.S. $/1,000 board feet) |
300 | 286 | 295 | 290 | ||
| Pulp (U.S. $/tonne) | 560 | 516 | 484 | 540 | ||
| Newsprint (U.S. $/tonne) | 615 | 595 | 536 | 540 | ||
| Copper (U.S. $/lb.) | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.63 | 0.65 | ||
| Lead (U.S. $/lb.) | 0.29 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.27 | ||
| Zinc (U.S. $/lb.) | 0.5 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.55 | ||
| Gold (U.S. $/oz.) | 298 | 295 | 310 | 330 | ||
| Aluminum (U.S. $/lb.) | 0.72 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.59 | ||
| Natural Gas (U.S. $/gigajoule) | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.10 | ||
| Coal (Cdn. $/tonne)4 | 54 | 42 | 43 | 39 | ||
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