Budget 2000
Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations
Honourable Paul Ramsey, Minister
Reports
This electronic version is for informational purposes only.
The printed version remains the official version.

Report A: ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

TABLE A1
BRITISH COLUMBIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK


  Budget
Forecast

Actual/
Estimate

Forecast 

 

1999 2000 2001

Gross Domestic Product (current dollars; percentage change) 1.1 3.21 3.8 4.0
Real Gross Domestic Product (Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations; percentage change) 0.5 1.41 2.2 2.7
Consumer Expenditure 1.8 1.4 1.5 2.6
Capital Investment -0.9 1.0 3.8 3.8
Government Expenditure 0.9 2.4 1.4 0.8
Exports of Goods and Services 1.8 3.5 4.3 4.1
Imports of Goods and Services 1.9 2.6 2.6 3.3
Inventory Investment (change in billions of 1992 dollars) -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Real Gross Domestic Product (Minister's Forecast Council; percentage change) 0.0 1.2 2.2 2.5
Population July 1; (percentage change) 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.3
  Net In-migration 25,900 22,540 36,800 41,900
  Interprovincial (7,400) (11,721) 7,700 12,500
  International 33,300 34,2612 29,100 29,400
Labour Force (thousands) 2,089 2,0793 2,123 2,170
(percentage change) 2.3 1.4 2.1 2.2
Employment (thousands) 1,918 1,9063 1,949 2,007
(percentage change) 3.1 1.9 2.3 2.9
Unemployment Rate (per cent) 8.2 8.33 8.2 7.5
Retail Sales (millions of current dollars) 34,080 33,653 34,600 36,260
(percentage change) 2.5 1.8 2.8 4.8
Labour Income4 (millions of current dollars) 63,480 62,250 64,550 67,390
(percentage change) 3.0 2.2 3.7 4.4
Corporate Pre-tax Profits
  (millions of current dollars) 5,035 7,1501 8,225 8,635
  (percentage change) -5.0 11.5 15.0 5.0
Housing Starts (units) 18,000 16,309 18,000 22,000
  (percentage change) -9.7 -18.2 10.4 22.2
Consumer Price Index (1992=100) 110.6 111.2 112.6 114.1
  (percentage change) 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.3

 

1 Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations estimates.
2

Levels are not comparable to 1999 budget forecast due to definition change.

3 Levels are not comparable to 1999 budget forecast due to Statistics Canada data revisions.
4

Wages, salaries and supplementary labour income.


Key Assumptions:
Economic Growth (per cent)
  Canada 2.4 4.2 3.4 2.8
  United States 3.0 4.1 3.5 3.0
  Japan -1.3 0.3 0.5 1.3
  Europe 2.1 2.11 2.8 2.7
Housing Starts (annual percentage change)
  Canada 1.9 8.1 4.3 2.6
  United States -4.7 3.3 -8.3 -2.0
  Japan 0.2 1.7 0.8 0.9
Industrial Production (annual percentage change)
  United States 2.0 3.6 3.7 3.3
  Japan -3.0 0.4 3.0 3.2
Consumer Prices (annual percentage change)
  Canada 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.1
  United States 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.5
Canadian Interest Rates (per cent; annual average)
  3-month Treasury Bills 4.7 4.7 5.4 5.4
  10-year and over Government of Canada bonds 5.4 5.7 6.7 6.4
United States Interest Rates (per cent; annual average)
  3-month Treasury Bills 4.5 4.7 6.2 6.4
  10-year and over U.S. Government bonds 5.2 5.9 7.1 6.8
U.S. cents/Canadian dollar 66.6 67.3 69.4 71.4
Commodity Prices
  BC Goods and Services Export Prices (Cdn $; percentage change) 0.8 2.3 2.5 1.8
  Spruce-Pine-Fir Lumber (U.S. $/1,000 board feet) 295 341 323 315
  Pulp (U.S. $/tonne) 484 522 650 711
  Newsprint (U.S. $/tonne) 536 514 541 575
  Copper (U.S. $/lb.) 0.63 0.72 0.85 0.90
  Lead (U.S. $/lb.) 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.26
  Zinc (U.S. $/lb.) 0.49 0.49 0.57 0.60
  Gold (U.S. $/oz.) 310 279 285 300
  Aluminum (U.S. $/lb.) 0.56 0.62 0.62 0.62
  Natural Gas (U.S. $/gigajoule) 1.09 1.95 1.99 2.03
  Coal (U.S. $/tonne)2 43 40 40 44

 

1 Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations estimates.
2

Weighted average of metallurgical and thermal coal prices.

 
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